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Thursday, January 10, 2008
Just Wondering
At the last two Democratic conventions, the main speaker on the first night of the convention has been Bill Clinton making the case for the Democratic nominee. With great success, in my opinion.
If Obama wins the nomination, will the party need to look for a new opening night speaker?
On the other side, Democrats are probably salivating about the prospect of George W. Bush, he with the 30+% approval rating, speaking on behalf of the Republican nominee on the first night of their convention. Maybe the White House will announce an "important" Presidential trip to Afghanistan that leaves August 31, 2008 and returns September 5.
Monday, January 07, 2008
A Few More Thoughts Before New Hampshire
1) If Hillary does flame out quickly, and Obama runs away with it, I'm wondering if people will question her decision to pass on challenging Bush in 2004. Clearly she felt that an open election with no incumbent would be an easier race for her, as no one could have foreseen the Obama tornado, and certainly running for reelection in New York and serving out her first term as a Senator all had benefits for her, but I think she certainly would have gotten the nomination in 2004 and would have been at least as strong as Kerry (and Kerry nearly won), and, with the nation closer to Bill Clinton's presidency, perhaps that token would have had more power.
2) Hillary has been focusing on the history of making change vs. just talking about change, I couldn't help but think about this classic SNL fake commercial from the late 80s. In any event, Obama has not been focusing on his record, instead trying to emphasize his vision for America. But I was impressed by his record in the Illinois state legislature, as this Washington Post op-ed piece describes. Being able to turn widespread opposition into a 35-0 vote in the Illinois state Senate on an issue like videotaping interrogations and confessions is pretty impressive.
3) Finally, if we still can't decide after New Hampshire, maybe this candidate will get a look too.
Friday, January 04, 2008
Hope and Change
Four years ago, I blogged enthusiastically about the Iowa caucuses because I felt that the citizens of Iowa had made a wise choice in rejecting Dean and anointing Kerry, reinvigorating my interest in the 2004 presidential race, which I had given up for lost until that point.
But this time, Iowa seems to have meant something quite different. It is quite possible that what American witnessed in Iowa last night was history changing. The degree of Obama's victory, the 3rd place finish by Hillary, and the sweeping, soaring, moving rhetoric of Obama's victory speech certainly could set the tone for a dramatic change in the foundation of American politics.
However, it is, after all, only Iowa. George H.W. Bush did not win the presidency (or even the nomination) in 1980 after winning Iowa. Same for Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt in 1988. But something about Obama's win last night just seemed different. Time will tell, and quickly, as things are on a fast track over the next 45 days. I've been skeptical about Andrew Sullivan's claim that Obama could be a transformational candidate, but he could be right.
On the other hand, poor John Edwards. Two election cycles in a row he finishes a strong 2nd in Iowa, both times with over 30% of the vote, and both times his second place showing is overshadowed not only by who beat him, but also by the third place finisher. It was Dean and the "scream" in 2004, and now Hillary and the media discussion of her candidacy this time. Edwards always seems to get squeezed. Which is also good for Obama.
In any event, it should be very exciting over the next month. I'll be curious to see how Hillary tinkers with her message and if Obama can keep this momentum going.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Prediction Time
Yes, it's been a while, I admit. But anyone who is loyal enough to still check this blog, here's my bold prediction: John McCain will be the Republican nominee. I've certainly been wrong before, but I think things are shaping up for him, much the way they did for Kerry last year. Romney is counting on winning NH and Iowa, and both seem to be very much in doubt. Giuliani is counting on winning Florida, which is also in doubt, and I'm not convinced Huckabee will have staying power past Iowa. That leaves McCain, who is peaking at the right time.
And I also think he would be the toughest Republican candidate in the general election against the Democratic nominee, whomever that is. I'm not offering a prediction on that today, however. It should be an interesting couple of months.
Friday, August 31, 2007
Wide Stance
The other big news story is of course Senator Craig's bathroom incident. The audio of his police interview hit the airwaves yesterday. Overall, I thought Craig did pretty well in the interrogation and the cop does come off a bit overly aggressive, although he could just be frustrated about being so blatantly lied too.
However, I picked up on one thing by Craig that I thought was a bit inconsistent. Craig says that he took his wide stance because he didn't want his pants to slide down, presumably to avoid touching the dirty floor of the public bathroom. But then at the same time he claims that the reason the cop saw his fingers was that he was reaching down on the floor to pick up a piece of toilet paper behind him.
Now, if you're concerned about getting your pants on the dirty floor, I can't imagine you'd want to help out the janitor by picking up toilet paper behind your seat. Unless you're stuck in a situation like Elaine on Seinfeld and the cop next to you says he can't spare a square.
But Craig chose not to invoke the Seinfeld defense, adopting the unfortunate "wide stance" argument. Comedians everywhere are happy.
The Iraq and U.S. Americans
I apologize for the paucity of posts lately, but it has been a very busy summer. I have to admit, however, that I've been drawn to the story over Miss Teen South Carolina and her botched response to the question at the Miss Teen U.S.A. pageant. Amazingly, there have been close to 10 million viewings of this on You Tube and I only account for about 100,000.
After repeated viewings, I've come to some conclusions. It seems to me that she must have been coached going into the pageant, and developed some stock answers to use ("I personally believe," "in our nation," "South Africa," "Iraq," the "Asian Nations," and repeated use of metaphors with "like" and "such as") and under pressure she just unloaded all of them, with no coherent structure. It's a car wreck that I just can't turn away from.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Quagmire
Here's a devastating 1994 interview with Dick Cheney on C-SPAN when he is asked about whether he agrees that President Bush (Senior) did the right thing when he decided not to go on to Baghdad and take out Saddam Hussein. Cheney predicts that the U.S. would have gotten stuck in a quagmire if they toppled Saddam. And, noting the 146 Americans who died during the first Gulf War, he goes on to ask, "How many additional dead Americans is Saddam Hussein worth?" and answers his own question: "Not very many."
Is it possible to do something, a la Back to the Future, where the 1994 Cheney visits the 2002 Cheney and knocks some sense into him?
Monday, July 23, 2007
More Fitzgerald
Here's a link to the audio of Fitzgerald's appearance on "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me."
My favorite part is after Peter Sagal, the host, establishes that Fitzgerald lives on the north side of Chicago, but works downtown, he then asks him, "So how do you feel about commuting?"
I also liked when Sagal is describing the rules and says that if Fitzgerald gets 2 of 3 questions right, he'll win a prize, and if he gets one or none right, he'll lose, "but if that seems overly harsh, I'm sure the President will step in."
Our Short National Nightmare Is Over
I'm happy that the two and one-half hour Cheney Presidency on Saturday morning appeared to be uneventful. I was worried he might invade Iran, or something equally reckless. It also doesn't appear that he pardoned Scooter Libby.
However, I haven't heard anything in the news about Patrick Fitzgerald since this weekend after his appearance on NPR's "Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me," which sounded pretty entertaining:
[Thursday], in a “rare public appearance,” U.S. attorney Patrick Fitzgerald
“submitted himself to questions as a guest on Chicago Public Radio’s comedic
quiz show, ‘Wait Wait…Don’t Tell Me.’” Although “Fitzgerald flunked the quiz, a
(scripted) appeal overturned the answer of the final question, commuting it to a
win. When asked by host Peter Sagal why such a tight-lipped public official
would come on the show, Fitzgerald said, “Literally, I was trying to get tickets
to the show.”
The Chicago Sun-Times reports that in the Chicago-based show’s segment,
“Not My Job,’ “Fitzgerald submitted to a quiz on scooters — such as the Segway.”
After the quiz, host Peter Sagal awarded Fitzgerald a child’s scooter “engraved
with the words: ‘To Patrick Fitzgerald, USA, This one will stay where you put
it‘.”
I also understand that he was asked questions about "Scooter" from the Muppet Show as well.
Hopefully we'll hear from him soon and he didn't get rounded up by Cheney as an "enemy combatant."
