Hope and Change

Four years ago, I blogged enthusiastically about the Iowa caucuses because I felt that the citizens of Iowa had made a wise choice in rejecting Dean and anointing Kerry, reinvigorating my interest in the 2004 presidential race, which I had given up for lost until that point.

But this time, Iowa seems to have meant something quite different. It is quite possible that what American witnessed in Iowa last night was history changing. The degree of Obama's victory, the 3rd place finish by Hillary, and the sweeping, soaring, moving rhetoric of Obama's victory speech certainly could set the tone for a dramatic change in the foundation of American politics.

However, it is, after all, only Iowa. George H.W. Bush did not win the presidency (or even the nomination) in 1980 after winning Iowa. Same for Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt in 1988. But something about Obama's win last night just seemed different. Time will tell, and quickly, as things are on a fast track over the next 45 days. I've been skeptical about Andrew Sullivan's claim that Obama could be a transformational candidate, but he could be right.

On the other hand, poor John Edwards. Two election cycles in a row he finishes a strong 2nd in Iowa, both times with over 30% of the vote, and both times his second place showing is overshadowed not only by who beat him, but also by the third place finisher. It was Dean and the "scream" in 2004, and now Hillary and the media discussion of her candidacy this time. Edwards always seems to get squeezed. Which is also good for Obama.

In any event, it should be very exciting over the next month. I'll be curious to see how Hillary tinkers with her message and if Obama can keep this momentum going.
- posted by Joshua @ 9:50 AM