Hope and Change

Four years ago, I blogged enthusiastically about the Iowa caucuses because I felt that the citizens of Iowa had made a wise choice in rejecting Dean and anointing Kerry, reinvigorating my interest in the 2004 presidential race, which I had given up for lost until that point.

But this time, Iowa seems to have meant something quite different. It is quite possible that what American witnessed in Iowa last night was history changing. The degree of Obama's victory, the 3rd place finish by Hillary, and the sweeping, soaring, moving rhetoric of Obama's victory speech certainly could set the tone for a dramatic change in the foundation of American politics.

However, it is, after all, only Iowa. George H.W. Bush did not win the presidency (or even the nomination) in 1980 after winning Iowa. Same for Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt in 1988. But something about Obama's win last night just seemed different. Time will tell, and quickly, as things are on a fast track over the next 45 days. I've been skeptical about Andrew Sullivan's claim that Obama could be a transformational candidate, but he could be right.

On the other hand, poor John Edwards. Two election cycles in a row he finishes a strong 2nd in Iowa, both times with over 30% of the vote, and both times his second place showing is overshadowed not only by who beat him, but also by the third place finisher. It was Dean and the "scream" in 2004, and now Hillary and the media discussion of her candidacy this time. Edwards always seems to get squeezed. Which is also good for Obama.

In any event, it should be very exciting over the next month. I'll be curious to see how Hillary tinkers with her message and if Obama can keep this momentum going.
- posted by Joshua @ 9:50 AM (0) comments

 
Prediction Time

Yes, it's been a while, I admit. But anyone who is loyal enough to still check this blog, here's my bold prediction: John McCain will be the Republican nominee. I've certainly been wrong before, but I think things are shaping up for him, much the way they did for Kerry last year. Romney is counting on winning NH and Iowa, and both seem to be very much in doubt. Giuliani is counting on winning Florida, which is also in doubt, and I'm not convinced Huckabee will have staying power past Iowa. That leaves McCain, who is peaking at the right time.

And I also think he would be the toughest Republican candidate in the general election against the Democratic nominee, whomever that is. I'm not offering a prediction on that today, however. It should be an interesting couple of months.
- posted by Joshua @ 10:06 PM (0) comments