WaxWorks
|
Friday, February 20, 2004
Man With a Death Wish?
What is Ralph Nader thinking? Apparently, he's running again. Of course, this is from Fox, and who knows if this is accurate (I'm constantly reminded of Rove's comment in 2000 when FoxNews called the election for Bush -- "Wait, it's just Fox.)
But if it is true, I'm certain Nader will not do anywhere near as well as last time and he will be finished as a national figure.
Red Meat
Bush is at it again. He's now made a recess appointment of Pryor to the 11th Circuit, after having done the same with Pickering a few weeks back. This appointment is clearly aimed at his right-wing base, with whom he's having increasing difficulties lately. Well, actually he's having difficulties with all groups lately. But I think this appointment is yet another sign of Bush trying to appease the right.
BTW, I think it also helps to fire up the extreme partisans on the left too. Judicial nominations are issues, by and large, that the general electorate doesn't think too much about (except for the Supreme Court) but that the extremes in each party care deeply about.
Ralph Nader of the Right?
Rumblings continue about former Alabama Chief Judge Roy Moore thinking about running as an independent for President this year. Here's what politics1.com has to say about it:
MOORE ACTING MORE LIKE A CANDIDATE. Ousted Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) -- the "Ten Commandments Judge" -- is starting to act more and more like a third party Presidential candidate. For a guy who isn't running for President "right now" (to quote his spokesperson), he's sure starting to act like a candidate. Moore is speaking at Constitution Party events in Oregon and Montana this month, according to the party's website. With President Bush currently trailing both Kerry and Edwards for re-elction by double-digits -- according to the latest CNN poll -- that last thing he wants in November is a "Ralph Nader of the Right" draining Christian conservative votes from his essential base.
This would be sweet justice if Bush had someone on the right draining votes from him in close states. (Although, remember, it didn't happen in 2000, when Buchanan was on the ballot). I think Bush will preempt this, though, by taking a hard-line conservative stance on a anti-gay marriage constitutional amendment.
Thursday, February 19, 2004
Fear Factor
Anyone who's read a corporate filing knows that companies list "risk factors" that could affect the company in the future. Well, Halliburton has apparently listed an unprecedented new risk factor in its recent filing: Dick Cheney.
The Company writes that the Cheney connection has caused "intense scrutiny" of its operations:
"Since [Cheney's] nomination as vice president," the company said in a recent SEC filing, "Halliburton has been and continues to be the focus of allegations, some of which appear to be made for political reasons by political adversaries of the vice president and the current Bush administration. We expect that this focus and these allegations will continue and possibly intensify as the 2004 elections draw nearer."
I've just read Jane Mayer's excellent article in the recent New Yorker, where she points out that the documents Paul O'Neill has released in connection with Ron Suskind's The Price of Loyalty indicate that Cheney's Energy Task Force was working in tandum with the NSC in planning for post-war Iraq. So, as a friend recently pointed out to me, is it possible that Cheney's intense desire to keep those meetings secret doesn't relate to the fact that the Bush Administration was in bed with the oil and gas industry and the Enron types (after all, everyone already knows that), but in fact is because those documents show that the administration was making plans for an Iraq invasion before 9/11?
Thinking Ahead
With such a tight Senate right now (51-49), losing Kerry's Senate seat in the event of a Presidential win would be a big loss for the Democrats. Under current Massachusetts law, the Governor (who is a Republican through 2006) would appoint a replacement for Kerry's seat and that replacement would serve until a special election in 2006.
Democrats in the state legislature, however, are thinking ahead and working to change the law to create a special election within a much shorter time period.
Under Article 17 of the US Constitution, governors derive the power of filling a Senate vacancy from their legislatures. Most states now give a governor that power, but several don't. Oregon law calls for a special election "as soon as practicable" with no interim appointment. Washington allows the governor to temporarily fill the vacancy, but also calls for a special election in 90 days, with a primary no less then 30 days before the final runoff.
Straus said he would like to adopt a version of the Oregon system. But Galvin raised doubts that elections, both primary and general, could be completed by late spring.
Straus said he would like to adopt a version of the Oregon system. But Galvin raised doubts that elections, both primary and general, could be completed by late spring.
If You Don't Know, Fake It
Here's a hilarious, apparently true, story of a 23 year old engineering student who shares the same name as a NYU international economics professor and was mistakenly asked to give a series of lectures in Beijing on global economics. The student knew nothing about the subject but decided to go anyway. He got a book on the subject and read it on the flight over to China and created a basic presentation of the material. He figured that he would be giving the same lecture to different people over three days, so he'd be okay if he found enough material to present to what he assumed were introductory students.
However, once he arrived in China he learned that he would be lecturing to the same group of students over the three days and that the students were MBA grads from the world of business who were getting PhDs in the subject. But the lad decided to give it the ol' college try anyway, by ripping the pages out of the book he had studied on the flight and presenting the material as if it were his own notes.
It went smoothly for the first two days and he got compliments by the students for his presentation and about how much they were learning. (No one ever appeared to realize that he was not the expected world-renowned professor.) Unfortunately, by the end of day two, he was on chapter 15 of 16 of the book he brought, and he knew there was no way he could make it through day 3. So he took off, went into hiding for a day and then caught his pre-scheduled flight home, no worse for the wear.
The Thaw
Ahhh, pitchers and catchers reporting. The first sign that spring is just around the corner.
There's been a lot of ill-will directed in the Yankees direction of late, after the A-Rod transaction (funny, no one seemed to be that worked up when the Red Sox were about to get him), so I thought I would just throw up a bit of a white flag and remind people that everyone, even Red Sox fans, can probably find some good in Yankeeland in the persons of Torre and Rivera.
Here's an excellent column by Eric Neel from last fall about Joe and Mo that I thought deserved a reposting to cool the anti-Yankee vibes perculating out there.
Play Ball!
Wednesday, February 18, 2004
|
Slander? We Report, You Decide.
Back on February 12, I posted this unspeakably nasty column by Ann Coulter about Max Cleland, triple-amputee Vietnam Vet. I can't possible give it justice -- you need to read it to truly experience its bile -- but essentially Coulter says Cleland's no war hero because, although having only one remaining limb, we need to consider HOW Cleland lost those other three limbs. According to Honest Annie: "Cleland lost three limbs in an accident during a routine noncombat mission where he was about to drink beer with friends. He saw a grenade on the ground and picked it up." Ann goes on to say: “He didn’t ‘give his limbs for his country,’ or leave them ‘on the battlefield. There was no bravery involved in dropping the grenade on himself with no enemy troops in sight."
Well, let's see how Ann's column stands up to the "facts," some of which this blogger has already done.
According to this newspaper article in the Washington Post, it describes Cleland's injury this way:
On April 8, 1968, during the siege of Khe Sanh, he stepped off a helicopter and saw a grenade at his feet. He thought he'd dropped it. He was wrong. When he reached down to pick it up, it exploded, ripping off both legs and his right hand. He was 25.
Hmm. This doesn't sound quite the way Ann described it. Maybe "the siege of Khe Sanh" is another way of saying "non-combat mission to get beer." Let's find out.
Using something that Ann should look into called "Google," I was able to determine that Khe Sahn is actually referred to as "the bloodiest battle in the Vietnam war." (Here's some more information from CNN.) And, just in case these are foreign news sources for Ann, Fox News, by way of its "War Stories with Oliver North" program, notes that:
Khe Sanh was the scene of one of the most ferocious and controversial battles of the Vietnam War. It was a remote combat base in the Vietnamese highlands. The base was under siege for 77 days (from January to April 1968). The 6,000 Marines and soldiers at the base were surrounded by a massive North Vietnamese Enemy Force numbering more than 20,000 by some estimates. Enduring unrelenting enemy fire, heavy casualties and dwindling supplies of ammunition, food and water, the Americans held their ground and broke the back of the enemy. Conditions at the base were stark: most were unable to shower for months, they often had to share their last drops of water or last bites of food with their buddies and enemy fire was so constant they had to live underground in bunkers for most of the siege.
By the way, here's what Cleland himself had to say about Coulter's claims:
"In fact, Cleland was wounded picking up a grenade that someone else dropped, during what he says was a combat mission. Cleland said , “I volunteered for a combat mission with the 1st Air Calvary division going into break the siege at Khe Sahn, and if that isn’t a combat mission, you ought to ask some of the people that were there and the 200 guys that were killed in that mission.”
Looks like someone will have some good ideas for a sequel to Slander...
The Electability Question
After Wisconsin, the big question that's being asked is who is more electable, Kerry or Edwards, after exit polls in Wisconsin show Edwards doing better against independents and moderate Republicans. The latest CNN/Gallup poll has some interesting numbers.
Among likely voters, Kerry beats Bush 55-43 and Edwards beats Bush 54-44. Not much of a difference there.
Regardless, these are not good numbers for Bush. I think we're going to start seeing some negative ads with that $200 million.
Whither Howard Dean?
I was never a Deaniac, but I must admit that I feel bad for Dean today. History has shown the candidate with the most money before the first primary always wins the nomination -- until now. And here is a situation where the candidate with the most money didn't even win a primary or caucus. (The only person who is even close to Dean is Phil Gramm in 1996, but Gramm, despite collecting oodles of cash, never was the frontrunner.)
What makes Dean's collapse so mind-boggling is that everyone thought that he had the nomination sewn up. I did, people I spoke to did, Dean must have (hell, he probably was already writing his convention acceptance speech). The White House obviously did, evidenced by the fact that Bush's State of the Union Speech was clearly designed as a retort to the Dean campaign, and once Dean wasn't the nominee, the speech looked pretty bad.
So, just the same way I can't imagine the pain Al Gore must have felt on November 7, 2000, after Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania were called for him, only to have Florida pulled away, I can't imagine how Dean must be feeling. Don't get me wrong -- I've always liked Howard Dean and I think he did the Party a great service by focusing the electorate and inspiring and motivating people when most Democrats were laying down to Bush. I just never thought he would be a good nominee.
God's speed, Dean for America.
Things have gotten a little bit more interesting after last night's results. Edwards now shows some life and is finally getting the one on one he wanted against Kerry. I have always been a big Edwards fan and his speech last night showed his obvious political skill. Edwards' timing couldn't be better either -- now we've got the longest stretch between primaries (at least big primaries -- no offense Idaho and Utah) to give Edwards a chance to capitalize on his momentum. We could have a closer race than people thought.
Tuesday, February 17, 2004
This AWOL issue could be unleashing a Pandora's Box on Bush's past, something he was able to side-step nicely in 2000, aside from that DWI, while running on an "honesty and integrity" platform.
First, one issue that has been raised in WH Press Briefings lately is whether or not Bush did not serve in the summer of 1972 because he was performing court-ordered community service for a drug? conviction. Also, the person that the White House has put forward to claim that he saw Bush in Alabama doing Guard duty says that May 1972 was one of the months he saw Bush do that duty. However, the Bush campaign has always maintained that Bush didn't start his Alabama Guard duty until the fall of 1972. Also, not only are pay records missing for Bush's last year in the Guard, but so is his Officer Effectiveness Report, the annual evaluation he should have received. There may be more to the allegation that embarrassing records were destroyed than first met the eye.
Then there's this by Larry Flynt, who's always good to point out sexual hyprocrisy by Republicans after what they did to Clinton. Flynt is apparently going to come out with a book that alleges that Bush paid for an abortion for an ex-girlfriend in the early 1970s. This story was around in 2000 but didn't go anywhere. According to Flynt, "I've talked to the woman's friends," Flynt said. "I've tracked down the doctor who did the abortion, I tracked down the Bush people who arranged for the abortion," Flynt said. "I got the story nailed."
As Drudge likes to say, developing...
Monday, February 16, 2004
I think this could end up being one of the most important events in campaign 2004. I'm actually quite surprised to read this -- I was certain that the FEC would rule against these groups, based on my understanding of the McCain-Feingold Supreme Court decision (and the FEC still could), but I'm encouraged to see that the FEC Chairman apparently will not.
The issue is that, since Bush will have more money than God, drawing upon the affulent Republican contribution base, Democrats faced the very real possibility of being completely blown away by TV ads, etc in the period between March and July, when the Democrats get their convention cash. Bush would spend freely, with no real recourse for the Democratic nominee. In the past, the DNC could get involved with advertising raised through soft money, but McCain-Feingold eliminated that possibilty.
So, reflecting the mobilized Democrat base, independent groups, funded by people like George Soros and run by people like Harold Ickes, have stepped in, vowing to spend $180 million in soft money in independent expenditures to attack Bush and, in turn, help the Democratic nominee. (For Republicans who complain about this, remember the Willie Horton ad everybody talks about? The one with the revolving prison door? That wasn't made by the Bush campaign, but rather through an independent expenditure run by a Republican named Floyd Brown.)
Well, the issue that the FEC was deciding here, thanks to a Republican group's request for an advisory opinion (and a group created solely to test the law with the hope of blocking the Dems), was whether, after McCain-Feingold, an independent group could use soft money to attack a candidate with ads similar to the Willie Horton ad. I don't want to get too hyper-technical, but, as is described in this excellent article, I was worried that the FEC would block these groups, thus handing the Republicans an ever greater money advantage. Now, there may be more parity than we thought.
And remember, Kerry opted out of public financing so we'll have to see how much he raise himself in hard money...
