[A friend of Kilgore's] said his hunch was that Bush would send up Alberto
Gonzales. Sure, the Right would go nuts, but Bush's approval rating would
jump ten points; a lot of Republicans would go along out of loyalty or even
relief; and Democrats would be placed in the uncomfortable position of either
eating the words they said about Gonzales' unfitness to serve as Attorney
General, or making a confirmation fight based on Gitmo, an issue that the
administration thinks still cuts in its favor. And if Gonzales went
down to a Left-Right coalition, then Bush could shrug, say he tried to be
reasonable, and then send up somebody really outrageous.

It's an interesting hypothesis, but I just don't buy it. This
appointment represents the giant balloon payment at the end of the mortgage the
GOP signed with the Cultural Right at least 25 years ago. Social
conservatives have agreed over and over again to missed payments,
refinancings, and in their view, generous terms, but the balance is finally
due, and if Bush doesn't pay up, they'll foreclose their entire alliance with
the Republican Party.

Sure, they care about other issues, from gay marriage to taxes to Iraq, but
abortion is the issue that makes most Cultural Right activists get up in the
morning and stuff envelopes and staff phone banks for the GOP. And for
decades now, Republicans have told them they can't do anything much about it
until they can change the Supreme Court. With a pro-choice Justice
stepping down, the subject can no longer be avoided. And thanks to the Souter
precedent (and indeed, the O'Connor and Kennedy precedents), there's no way Bush
can finesse an appointment that's anything less than a guaranteed vote to
overturn Roe.