I think this could end up being one of the most important events in campaign 2004. I'm actually quite surprised to read this -- I was certain that the FEC would rule against these groups, based on my understanding of the McCain-Feingold Supreme Court decision (and the FEC still could), but I'm encouraged to see that the FEC Chairman apparently will not.

The issue is that, since Bush will have more money than God, drawing upon the affulent Republican contribution base, Democrats faced the very real possibility of being completely blown away by TV ads, etc in the period between March and July, when the Democrats get their convention cash. Bush would spend freely, with no real recourse for the Democratic nominee. In the past, the DNC could get involved with advertising raised through soft money, but McCain-Feingold eliminated that possibilty.

So, reflecting the mobilized Democrat base, independent groups, funded by people like George Soros and run by people like Harold Ickes, have stepped in, vowing to spend $180 million in soft money in independent expenditures to attack Bush and, in turn, help the Democratic nominee. (For Republicans who complain about this, remember the Willie Horton ad everybody talks about? The one with the revolving prison door? That wasn't made by the Bush campaign, but rather through an independent expenditure run by a Republican named Floyd Brown.)

Well, the issue that the FEC was deciding here, thanks to a Republican group's request for an advisory opinion (and a group created solely to test the law with the hope of blocking the Dems), was whether, after McCain-Feingold, an independent group could use soft money to attack a candidate with ads similar to the Willie Horton ad. I don't want to get too hyper-technical, but, as is described in this excellent article, I was worried that the FEC would block these groups, thus handing the Republicans an ever greater money advantage. Now, there may be more parity than we thought.

And remember, Kerry opted out of public financing so we'll have to see how much he raise himself in hard money...


- posted by Joshua @ 9:31 PM