Kerry The Closer?

I'm going to preface my remarks by stating that I thought Gore destroyed Bush in their first debate in 2000, and then the media went nuts over sighs and that probably cost Gore the election. That being said, the only person sighing last night was Bush.

Going into the debate last night, Bush had made Kerry a caricature -- Kerry's this, he's not strong, he's a flip-flopper, he doesn't mean what he says -- and that is the only way that Bush was able to pull ahead in the polls. Look at the state by state polls -- in a lot of states Bush is doing better in the polls than his approval rating in those states. That says to me that Bush has done a good job of making Kerry an unacceptable alternative to him.

But the thing about debates is that you get to stand next to the other the guy and actually show whether or not you are what the other guy's been saying about you. And I think Kerry did a very good job last night of showing America that he is not the man Bush has depicted and I think a lot of voters will now think about moving his way. Kerry looked presidential and he looked calmer and cooler than Bush.

I also think the debate agreement is something that Bush may regret. History shows that the most people watch the first debate and that is usually decisive. So Bush wanted the first debate to be about foreign policy, because he thought he could destroy Kerry by using his same attacks he's been using for months. (Think about it, how much of Bush's campaign is about attacking Kerry on domestic issues?) But last night it was Kerry, not Bush, who looked stronger and now the debates go to more Kerry-friendly areas where the President will not have an easy retort. It's also amazing -- can anyone tell what Bush had to say last night other than "he changes his mind" and "he flip flops" ? He's got nothing else.

I also think the lights on the stage hurt Bush. He wanted them because he wanted to show people that Kerry is long-winded and people would see as Kerry went over his time. But more often than not last night, it was Bush who was still talking after the red light went on, and even starting flashing, and you weren't even sure what is was that he was saying that required him to go over. By contrast, having the lights up there made Kerry talk more like Bush -- clearer, more concise, more declarative. That was a great unintended consequence for Kerry. In one exchange, Kerry got 30 seconds to respond to Bush's charge that he had changed his position on the war in Iraq. Kerry then proceeded to state his position clearly in 30 seconds when he hadn't been able to do so for six months with unlimited time.

The press loves to follow a script (See 'Gore as Exaggerator') and plug the campaign events into that script. How about "Kerry is a great closer"?

- posted by Joshua @ 10:05 AM