Zogby on May 9, 2004: Election is Kerry's to Lose

I've mentioned before my strong faith in Zogby polling -- he was right on the nose in 1996 and was the only major pollster I know of that had Gore winning the popular vote in 2000. His polling during the Democratic primaries has been right on.

That's why I have to take notice, particularly in a time when grumbling among Dems has started about Kerry's inability to pull away from Bush during such bad news for the Administration, when Zogby posts a headline like this: The Election Is Kerry's To Lose

Zogby's premises are strong: only 44% feel the country is headed in the right direction; only 43% believe Bush deserves to be reelected; Kerry leads by 17 points in "Blue States" that voted for Gore, while Bush only leads by 10 points in "Red States" he won four years ago. Also, Zogby notes that the economy is still the top issue for votes (Kerry leads Bush among those voters, 54-35); the war in Iraq is second (Kerry leads among those voters 57%-36%) and the war on terror is third (with Bush leading 64-30 among those voters)

Also, Zogby notes that the fact that there are so few undecided voters is bad for Bush, since undecideds generally break for the challenger against the incumbent.

Finally, the most significant (and most wishful, for Democrats) point is that Kerry is a great closer:

Finally, if history is any guide, Senator Kerry is a good closer. Something happens to him in the closing weeks of campaigns (that obviously is not happening now!). We have clearly seen that pattern in his 1996 victory over Governor Bill Weld for the Senate in Massachusetts and more recently in the 2004 Democratic primaries. All through 2003, Kerry's campaign lacked a focused message. He tends to be a nuanced candidate: thoughtful, briefed, and too willing to discuss a range of possibly positions on every issue. It is often hard to determine where he actually stands. In a presidential campaign, if a candidate can't spell it out in a bumper sticker, he will have trouble grabbing the attention of voters. By early 2004, as Democratic voters in Iowa and elsewhere concluded that President Bush could be defeated, they found Governor Howard Dean's message to be too hot and began to give Kerry another look. Kerry came on strong with the simplest messages: "I'm a veteran", "I have the experience", and "I can win". His timing caused him to come on strong at the perfect time. As one former his Vietnam War colleague of told a television correspondent in Iowa: "John always knows when his homework is due."

Though he is hardly cramming for his finals yet and is confounding his supporters, possible leaners, and even opponents with a dismal start on the hustings, the numbers today are on his side (or at least, not on the President's side).

Definitely worth a read if you're looking for a pick-me-up in morale...





- posted by Joshua @ 12:14 PM