Senate Prospects

I was particularly disheartened by the election results in 2002 because I thought that the Democrats had blown an excellent opportunity to not only hold onto control of the Senate, but to extend their hold by a few seats. Close losses in Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri and New Hampshire, coupled with Cleland's loss in Georgia, prevented that. One reason for my strong disappointment was that I had looked at the seats up in 2004 and I did not feel that the Democrats would have a good opportunity to regain control in 2004 if they lost control in 2002.

Well, here we are, nearly in the middle of 2004, and I'm happy to report that my initial analysis, as so often happens (did anybody read the Sports Illustrated article about that phrase?), was too pessimistic. As it currently stands, the Democrats stand a pretty good chance of retaking control of the Senate. (Currently, things stand at 51 R, 48 D and 1 I, Jeffords, who caucuses with the Democrats -- so the Democrats need a net pick up of 2 seats to regain control. This is the case even if Kerry wins, because, even though his VP would break ties, Kerry would leave the Senate and, until a new law is passed setting up a special election, Gov. Romney would appoint a Republican.)

Illinois , which currently has Republican Peter Fitzgerald, who is retiring, is a likely Dem pickup. Given the way Illinois has voted in the past few President elections, it should come as no surprise that Illinois is the best chance for the Democrats to pick up a seat. Barack Obama is a charismatic young political whose only negatives appear to be having a last name that looks a lot like the #1 U.S. Enemy. He should coast to victory, particularly since the Republicans, for the second straight election since the corruption scandal of former Gov. Ryan, have foolishly nominated a "Ryan" to a statewide office.

Thanks to Ben Nighthorse-Campbell's (R) decision not to run for reelection, Colorado looks like another likely Democratic pick up. The Democratic candidate, Salazar is the current AG and is popular. Current polls have the Dem ahead. The Republicans were hurt by Gov. Owens' decision not to run, leaving some lesser candidates to fight it out in the primary.

Believe it or not, Alaska also represents a prime opportunity for another Democratic pickup. Current Senator Lisa Murkowski was appointed by her father to fill his Senate seat when he was elected Governor and she has gotten a lot of criticism. The Democratic candidate is popular former Governor Tony Knowles. Although Alaska is a historically Republican state, Knowles is currently running ahead in the polls and the Democrats have a very good chance of winning this seat as well.

In the same vein, Oklahoma presents another unusual opportunity for a Democratic pickup. Usually solidly Republican, the retirement of Senator Nickles has provided the Democrats a chance to go after an open seat and they have nominated a very, very strong candidate in Congressman Brad Carson. The Republican primary will decide his opponent, probably former Congressman Coburn, but Carson has a good chance and has raised a lot of money.

We'll know more about whether Pennsylvania is a possible Democratic pickup after Tuesday's Republican primary. Incumbent Arlen Specter is being challenged on the right by conservative Congressman Pat Toomey. The Democrats have nominated Congressman Joe Hoeffel. CW has been that the Democrats stand a decent chance if right-winger Toomey defeats true-moderate Specter, but it might also be said that a weakened Specter, who barely squeaks by in the primary, might be a prime target for the Dems. Keep an eye on this race.

One wildcard is the Missouri race. Republican Senator Kit Bond looks strong for reelection, but Democratic Candidate Nancy Farmer is gaining ground. This seat could be in play down the road, particularly if Gephardt is the VP nominee.

On the Democratic side, Georgia is a sure Republican pick-up. But let's be honest, with Zell Miller, the seat pretty much was in Republican hands anyway. Looking at Miller now, it's hard to fathom that he gave one of the keynote addresses at Clinton's '92 Democratic convention, and a pretty stirring one at that.

But other than that, the Republicans have more difficulty picking up Democratic seats. Yes, South Dakota will be close again, but I believe Daschle will pull it out, particularly since the third party candidate has dropped out and endorsed him.

Where control of the Senate lies is in the open Democratic Southern seats. As Southern Democrat after Southern Democrat retired, things looked bleak for Democratic chances in the Senate. But, other than in Georgia, an actual analysis of each of those states looks much more promising.

South Carolina on the surface looks like another Georgia, with Democratic Fritz Hollings retiring at 82 after finally getting the opportunity to be the "senior senator" from South Carolina, after being the junior senator under Strom for so long. However, the Democrats have nominated Inez Tannebaum, who has been elected to statewide office several times. This race looks to be close to the end .

In North Carolina, with Edwards retiring and hoping to be promoted to VP, the Democrats are running a very strong candidate in Erskine Bowles, who lost a very competitive race to Liddy Dole in 2002. Bowles opponent is Congressman Richard Burr, and although Bowles is currently slightly ahead, this race should be close as well .

Like its place in Presidential politics, the Florida Senate race also looks like a tossup. Replacing retiring Democratic Senator Bob Graham (who also hopes to be promoted to VP) The nominees for each party aren't close to being settled, but this race looks like it too will be real close.

Finally, a run-off in Louisiana might decide the fate of the Senate, which means that interest will continue into December. Given the crazy Louisiana open primary system, I'm not even going to try to predict the nominees. But it will also be close.

All that being said, things look pretty good for Democrats. If they can pick up Illinois, Alaska and Colorado, and lose Georiga, they will retake the Senate. Now the Southern open seats will be difficult to hold -- it's certainly possible that Dems might lose one or two additional seats, which is why Oklahoma or Pennsylvania could prove to be important possible pickups. It's still waaay too early for predictions, but things look a lot better than they did a year ago.
- posted by Joshua @ 3:30 PM