Red-Blue Nation

Here's a nice summary of the state of play in the 2004 election. Unbelievably, it's likely down to about 18 states. While voters in say, Texas, New York or Maryland, may never see a TV ad for Bush or Kerry, voters in those 18 states will be oversaturated by November.

I really see this election now as a race against time. Bush needs to define Kerry over the next three months, because Kerry is still relatively unknown. Kerry, on the other hand, has survived the Democratic primary as unscathed as any nominee in history (yes, the much-maligned Terry McAulliffe deserves some credit for front loading the process), and has the opportunity to cement a positive image with the voters between now and the convention. I agree whole-heartedly with Josh Marshall that Kerry needs to hit back on defense and national security now, to avoid having voters who are just paying attention now see him as weak on those issues. One thing I'm quite (pleasantly) surprised by is how off-kilter the Bush political machine is, after being so good for much of his presidency. Bush is very much off kilter now, and everytime he tries to plug the dam, something else comes loose.

Given the situation, I think Kerry needs to be aggressive during this period. Money, again, will be key during the general election, because although many people has discussed Bush's money advantage during the primary season, not many have discussed Bush's continued advantage in the fall, even though both will receive the same $75 million from the gov't to fund their general election campaigns. The problem is that the nominee of each party will receive the money right after the convention. Since the Democratic convention is at the end of July and Bush's is at the end of August (as close to Sept. 11 as they could get), Kerry will have to make his money last a month longer. I don't think this is as big a deal as Bush having ridiculous amounts of money during the primary season, but it is a factor to consider.
- posted by Joshua @ 2:39 PM