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WaxWorks
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Monday, March 08, 2004
 
College Tour

I'm a big fan of John Zogby's polling, even though he was off base in 2002. Zogby got 1996 and 2000 right on the nose and he's got a good track record.

Here he's got an interesting analysis of the current state of the electoral college based on his polling so far this year. According to Zogby, Kerry has 226 electoral votes in "safe" blue states and Bush has 176 electoral votes in "safe" red states, leaving 136 electoral votes up for grabs. The up for grabs states are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Tenneseee, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

Zogby writes:

Remember NBC's Tim Russert with his chalkboard in 2000, chanting, "Florida, Florida, Florida"?
This time, says Zogby, it may be "Ohio, Ohio, Ohio."
"National poll numbers are irrelevant," Zogby says. "What is relevant is how the president plays in the Red states, and how the Democrats play in the Blue states."

Interestingly, the latest poll out of Florida has Kerry ahead 49-43, with Nader garnering 3%.

- posted by Joshua @ 11:53 AM
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