Philly Cream Cheese?

As is so often the case, Bob Somerby makes some great points today in his incomparable Daily Howler (His column, located here, should definitely put on your daily reading list, as his media critiques are often right on the money).

But Bob's column today, which focuses in part on the media treatment of Teresa Heinz Kerry, made me realize something interesting, and potentially very important, concerning the 2004 race. Somerby quotes a 1995 Boston Globe article about Heinz Kerry by John Robinson:

ROBINSON: [Her work at the Heinz foundation] has earned Heinz the title of “Saint Teresa,” as she was called in a W magazine profile, and which has now stuck. It was the first reference Pittsburgh Mayor Thomas J. Murphy made of her when he was interviewed for this story and, from the point of view of many in Pittsburgh, “saint” may not be an elevated enough title.
“Teresa did not have a connection to Pittsburgh except through marriage,” Murphy said. “Her life was mostly in DC. But she committed herself, and she’s been extraordinarily active. She’s revamped the foundation, making it more vital to this community.”
“She’s like our national treasure here,” added Tom Foerster, Allegheny county commissioner.

Some people I know have expressed their concern about Teresa, and whether she would be a negative for Kerry in the general election. I've generally understood her to have an extraordinarily impressive philanthropic resume, but have not thought much else about it (I've only seen her interviewed on TV once.)

My reaction upon reading this snippet, however, was that if attitudes haven't changed that much since 1995 (and it's certainly possible that they have), Teresa could be a HUGE asset to Kerry. Why? Because everyone agrees that Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state in November and if Teresa is that well known and respected (let's not forget that her first husband was a Senator there for many years), it could be a huge advantage to Kerry. I've thought that the Rendell election to Governor and other polls I've seen recently makes Pennsylvania a more Democratic state than it was four years ago, such that Kerry was going to win Pennsylvania anyway, but this tidbit makes me even more confident.

What would this do the electoral math? Well, it makes things interesting. First, Illinois is solidly Democratic and there's no way that Bush will carry it in November. Michigan is viewed as a swing state but there's realistically, especially after the steel tariff flip-flop and the manufacturing jobs lost, no way that Bush will win there this year. That leaves Pennsylvania among the big industrial states that Bush had hoped to snatch away from the Democrats in '04. If that doesn't look possible, Bush may find himself playing more defense in, say, Ohio with its massive manufacturing job losses, and the electoral map looks better and better for Democrats. I've said it privately, so now I'll go on the record publicly: I think Ohio will be a crucial state in this year's presidential election.

Now the Democrats need to gear up for the oncoming assault to Kerry by the Bush Ad machine. However, I'm wondering how on earth the Bush campaign burned through $45 million already. People criticize Dean for burning through his $41 million so fast, but no one says anything about Bush, who got NOTHING for his money so far. If this rate of return continues, Democrats will be just fine by July.
- posted by Joshua @ 2:42 PM