Well, I'm starting to get a bit more optimistic.

First, I read this article this morning. I've been a bit worried that 9/11 might have drastically changed NY's view of President Bush in such a way that NY might be a state up-for-grabs in 2004. Rove & Co. apparently thought so too, or else they wouldn't have picked NYC as the site of the Republican convention in 2004. Sure, I agree that there are residual benefits to the rest of the nation being reminded of 9/11 by having the convention there. But I think Rove and others are believing they can carry NY in '04, which, of course, would kill any Democratic chances. But a recent poll gives me some relief. It shows that only 36% of NY voters would vote for Bush today, and 54% would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee, not quite Gore's 25 point margin over Bush in '00, but enough to make Democrats encouraged.

Rove is an evil genius -- I think he handled the '02 elections brilliantly (even though I think what happened in GA was a disgrace). But his one real weakness is hubris, and it could be his undoing. Remember, if Bush doesn't campaign in California at the end of the 2000 campaign, there probably is no Florida. Rove thought he could win California and it nearly cost him. The same could be the case with New York -- it could become his great white whale.

Secondly, the latest CBS News/NYT poll is VERY encouraging for Democrats. Where to begin, because the whole thing is a train wreck for Bush.

Well, his overall approval rating is down to 54%, from 64% a month ago. Over fifty percent favor giving the U.N. process more time before taking unilateral action against Iraq. Only 47% approved of his overall handling of foreign policy, while 44% disapproved. 53% approved of how he is handling Iraq.

But the big issue is the economy. 53% disapproved of his handling of the economy, and only 38% approve of how he is handling it. These are big-time disasterous numbers.

Which is why we need to watch and stop the press from Gore-ing people like Kerry. . .


- posted by Joshua @ 2:23 PM