Interesting rumors about a potential Supreme Court vacancy. And not great news for Democrats. I've long maintained that Alberto Gonzales would likely be the best that Democrats could hope for in a Bush Supreme Court nominee, in that he has shown moderate views on abortion (voting on the Texas Supreme Court to strike down some restrictions on minor access) and might be moderate on affirmative action. Unfortunately, conservatives have apparently made the same analysis and have been pressuring the Bush White House to move to a more conservative nominee. Apparently, it depends who resigns. If it's Rehnquist, then Gonzales is less likely because it would tilt the Court to the left since he is seen as more moderate than Rehnquist. If O'Connor leaves first, however, Gonzales is a possibility since replacing the more moderate O'Connor wouldn't make the Court any more liberal, the thinking goes. If it is Stevens (who I think isn't leaving alive during Bush's term after Bush v. Gore), the thinking goes that Gonzales is a sure thing.

I think it also may depend where Bush is politically -- two months ago, Bush was looking a lot stronger than he is today and I think he had the power to push through whomever he wanted, regardless of who retires. Now, perhaps less so. Although one thing about Bush is that he always seems to act like he has more political capital than he really does, which is a bluff that often works for him. Just think of the 2001 Tax Act after the divided election. As Drudge says, developing . . .
- posted by Joshua @ 8:51 PM